GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY AND VIOLENT BEHAVIOR
Abstract
This paper reports on a statistical study of hypothesized relationships between three indices of geomagnetic field activity and the incidence of violent crime on a nationwide basis. focusing on monthly variation over the entirety of an II-year solar cycle, and yearly variation over a 30 year period encompassing the past three solar cycles (cycles 19. 20 and 21). Contrary to expectations. sunspot numbers -which have only a tenuous relationship with geomagnetic al."tiviry -were found to be significant at the yearly level. while none of the more direct indices of geomagnetic activity exhibited any correlation. The possibility of a non-magnetic solar effect on human behavior is therefore raised.
References
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Such analysis was impossible using monthly ievel data since the incidence of storms above 100 on the k--index is comparatively low.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports for the United StIltes, data has been taken from the 1982 and 1986 editions. While the use of percentages has limitations, it nonetheless shouid provide an indication of any relationship between an unusual magnetic event and the corresponding monthly percentage; eg., if a magnetic storm of unusual intensity took place, based on the model one wouid expect a correspondingly higher incidence of crime during that month than those months preceding or following the event.
Note that data was unavailable for the years 1976-77; as a result, these have been excluded from analysis.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports for the United StIlles, 1982 and 1986 editions. Note that this data represents actual incidents, not percentages of annual totais.
The first highest was 1954-1965, the second 1987 to present (not yet complete).
Note that the data for cycle 19 is not complete; owing to changes in the reporting methods used by the FBI, data for the years 1955-56 was not comparable to later years, and was therefore excluded from analysis.
The model after autocorrelation (model n: "y 9.07 + (-0.005)aa index + (0.0003)sunspot index + (0.0007)time + (0.925)ZI + (-1.46)Z2 + (-O.883)Z3 + (1.188)Z4 + (-0.843)Z5
+ (-0.898)Z6 + (0.038)Z7 + (0.011)28 + (-0.372)Z9 + (0.602)ZI0 + (-0.850)ZII + (O.OO6)mag storm index + e.
Eg., June was associated with a -0.90 percent decrease in the inciden..::e of such crimes when compared with December (it must be remembered that the dependent variable in this instance is not the actual incidence of crime, but rather the monthly per..::entages of the annual totals of murder and non-negligent manslaughter).
The model after autocorrelation (model II): Ay =7.8 + (-0.004)aa index + (O.OOOO7)sunspot index + (-0.00003)time + (-0.609)Zl + (-O.959)Z2 + (0.158)Z3 +
(0.287)Z4 + (1.069)Z5 + (1.396)Z6 + (1.95)Z7 + (1.827)Z8 + (1.122)Z9 + (0.87)Z10 + (-O.02)Z11 + (O.0196)mag storm index + e.
Model III: Ay = 0.330 + (O.0013)aa index + (O.097)time + e. (These and all subsequent values are after autocorrelation.)
Model IV: Ay =0.233 + (OOl)sunspot index + (0.0996)time + e.
Model Va,Vb,Vc: y = 0.39 + (-O.OOl)mag storm index + (0.097)time + ej y= 0.331 + (O.006)mag storm 100 + (O.098)time + e; y = 0.341 + (0.038)mag storm 200 + (0.097)time + e.
Model VI: Ay = 0.046 + (O.OOOO6)aa index + (O.OOl)time + e.
Model VII: Ay = 0.037 + (0.000063)sunspot index + (O.OOl7)time +e.
Model VIlla, VIllb, VIllc: y = 0.047 +(-3.28)mag storm index+ (O.OOl)time + e; y =
047 + (O.OOOOl)mag storm 100 + (O.OOI)time + ej y 0.047 + (0.00059)mag storm 200 + (0.0014)time + e.
The impact of the sunsfXlt index on crime is, however, slight. The parameter estimate for the sunspot variable in model IV (murderl non-negligent manslaughter) is very small each one unit increment in the sunspot index will lead to a 0.000063 increment in the dependent V'd.riable; the parameter estimate for this variable in modd VII (aggrd.V'd.ted assault) is similarly small, 0.001.
It shou1d be remembered that the annual cyclical effect is hidden by seasonal variation in monthly data, since the data involved were not capable of evincing this effeLi-monthly models used ptrcmtagts ofytar/y totals, not the actual number of crimes committed, eliminating the possibility of long-term trends involving overall increases or decreases on a yearly basis influencing the model. Analysis was, instead, fix.-used on the relative distribution of activity within a given year.
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Subtle Energies & Energy Medicine by International Society for the Study of Subtle Energies & Energy Medicine is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. Based on a work at journals.sfu.ca.Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.issseem.org.
